Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026

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How Trump's rivals unwittingly led him to victory in New Hampshire

By Chris Hayes

Barring some legal or health emergency, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee in 2024. His projected victory in New Hampshire over Nikki Haley almost certainly closes the window of possibility for Haley to even keep the contest competitive. She now faces a do-or-die last stand in her home state of South Carolina, where (still limited) polling suggests a very uphill battle.

Of course, Trump has looked like the de facto nominee for so long that political junkies and neophytes alike might be forgiven for viewing the aspirations of replacing him as the leader of the Republican Party as delusional.

But I’m not quite so sure. We know Trump was politically weakened by the disastrous performance of his handpicked candidates in the 2022 midterms. He was even losing in some head-to-head polling with Ron DeSantis at one point.

In the end, there are lots of reasons why we’ve ended up with Trump back in a position of party dominance.

This is a preview of Chris Hayes' latest article. Read the full column here.

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MORE FROM MSNBC

Plan Your Vote is back for the 2024 primary season. Click here to get information on key races in your state, changes in voting rules from the last election cycle, and when and how to vote in your state's primary election.

The latest episode of “How to Win 2024” is now available. Claire McCaskill and Jennifer Palmieri analyze Donald Trump’s win in last Monday’s Iowa Caucuses and explain why it may not be the landslide his campaign is touting. Plus, a look ahead to the upcoming New Hampshire primary with the former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, Jennifer Horn. Listen now.

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